Predictions for the Path Forward
Where Tech %s for soonest paths are needed:
Path 1
1a: Make grids more flexible to a variety of more variable renewable energy sources- interim solution needed for next decade
1b: Maximise building “on-demand” and predictable renewables like geo-thermal, hydropower and tidal energy as the baseload power sources for energy grids (and their research & development)
1c: Figure out the people who will plan out (and publish) where variable renewables should be located across large scales. The purpose of this is to maximize the probability that if there is low sun and low wind in one location, there will be enough sun and/or wind in another location. This will need to be done for scenarios where renewable energy provides 100%, 120%, 140%, 200%, etc of power needs, and potentially where renewable energy provides less. This means that people know the best places to build renewables. This might also potentially need permits- businesses need permits if they want to build outside the plan.
1d: Figure out more strategies for variability… currently, the maximum distance the at energy can travel is 483km… can this be made longer.
1e: Thoroughly prepare at risk citizens for what to do in times that energy can't cover everyone.
Path 2
The world really needs the following four things- how do you make these incredibly popular (in safe and ethical ways)
2a: To ask the world for 100 billion %s (1) to help solve variability and energy storage. Solar and wind energy storage currently lasts 6-24 hours (although hydropower, geo-thermal and ocean tides are on-demand or regular) and needs the 100 billion world %s. At the very least, the world of tech people will go “I can beat non-tech people at solving this and get motivated. At the most, people’s unique perspectives and insights will move this forward fast enough to be able to achieve the 2025 and 2030 goals. So how do you regularly ask the world for 100 billion %s to help solve energy storage??
2b: To ask the world for 100 billion %s (1) to help solve the 2025 & 2030 goals, (2) to solve what to do during mid-summer and mid-winter, (3) to reduce energy prices for consumers, and (4) to increase profits for businesses (but where the 2025 & 2030 goals are the absolute priority)
2c: To ask the world for 100 billion %s for intensive research into the most promising renewables on really, really, really large scales. For example- what about tides? This would produce really regular and consistent energy and you could put filters over it.
2d: To ask the world’s governments to regularly invest in the most promising energy generation and energy storage facilities
Path 3
3a: Seriously think about what to do with peaker plants- peaker plants as backup plants for low sun supply/wind supply times and high demand times. Apparently, a lot of these are almost fully automated- how much do these cost to run? Apparently, they are very expensive to start, stop and maintain.
3b: Seriously think about how to solve variability and business profitability around coal, oil and gas power plants. For example, as the percentage of renewables increase, coal, oil & gas plants will increasingly become peaker plants or shut down, both of which are expensive for consumers.
It makes a lot of sense for coal, oil and gas plants to switch to renewables, but it leaves them with the question, what do they do about the coal, oil and gas stations?
In the medium term, coal, oil and gas plants are still needed as expensive peaker plants- plants that run during times there is little sun and little wind, and times when there is particularly high demand. For the medium and long term, figure out strategies to change polluting peaker plants to less polluting options…
However, please be aware that a study of bioenergy and biomass in the US over the past 10 years showed that these were more unsafe for humans than coal, oil and gas, even if they produced less climate change. So this is probably not the solution.
Path 4
4a: Increase the storage time for large-scale country-wide wind, solar, variable renewable plants. This is a huge part of what is needed in terms of 100 billion tech %s.
This could be through molten salt storage (where the problem to be solved is corrosiveness), batteries (that last 24 hours or longer) or other methods, like this excellent article: >>> https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/most-promising-long-duration-storage-technologies-left-standing
What about Liquid Air as a worldwide answer? :
“Liquid air is not yet produced commercially, but liquid nitrogen, which can be used in the same way, is produced throughout the industrialised world. The industrial gas companies have large amounts of spare nitrogen production capacity for the simple reason there is far more nitrogen than oxygen in the atmosphere but proportionately less commercial demand. This surplus could be used in place of liquid air to support early deployment. In future, liquid air would be cheaper to produce than liquid nitrogen, because there is no need to separate the nitrogen and oxygen, meaning liquefaction requires less equipment and consumes around a fifth less energy.”
How many hours will the stored liquid air create energy? If it is for 100,000 homes, wouldn’t this be 10 hours? This is also excess energy from the solar or wind farm- it is storing additional energy
How long can it keep frozen air for reuse?
In 2019, Highview announced plans to build a 50 MW plant in northern Vermont, with the proposed facility able to store eight hours of energy, for a 400 MWh storage capacity.
“>>> 3a: The new liquid air battery, being developed by Highview Power, is due to be operational in 2022 and will be able to power up to 200,000 homes for five hours, and store power for many weeks.”
The project will cost $106.5 million, and Highview received $43.9 million of investment from the Japanese machinery giant Sumitomo. The liquid air battery is creating 200 jobs, mainly in construction, and employing former oil and gas engineers, with a few dozen in the continuing operation. The plant’s lifetime is expected to be 30 to 40 years.
How much would it cost? 200,000 houses - $100m, 1 mill houses- $500m; 10 mill houses- $5b
“Cryogenic storage is not directly competing with lithium-ion batteries as it provides storage for a longer duration, from over 10 hours”
4. Can you make it on a large scale?
a. 400 MWh system in the United States, a 250 MWh project in the United Kingdom, and a 300 MWh facility in Spain.
b. “(It) has, currently, a technology readiness level (TRL) of 8,” research co-author Adriano Sciacovelli told PV Magazine. The TRL measures the maturity of technology components for a system and is based on a scale from one to nine, with nine representing mature technologies for full commercial application.
c. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/02/a-closer-look-at-liquid-air-energy-storage/
5. How cheap is it?
“Cryogenic energy storage has the advantage that it is a technology that can be produced through an established industry and without any expensive or rare material.” https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/02/a-closer-look-at-liquid-air-energy-storage/
a. The Price of Liquid Air: page 20: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/Documents/college-eps/energy/liquid-air-highway.pdf
b. In terms of costs, the research group estimated that a LAES system can be built at between €300 and €600 per kilowatt-hour.
c. “Investment return is estimated at approximately 20 years for a standalone system without integration with an industrial facility for use of excess heat,” research co-author Andrea Vecchi told PV Magazine. “An ideal location in an industrial park, however, may significantly reduce this time frame.”
d. All existing projects were defined by the research team as bankable, although they stressed that these positive business cases are favored by certain conditions, including a determined price structure in the energy market and the presence of a grid unable to support high levels of renewable energy penetration.
6. Does the world have a nitrogen crisis? How does this affect this?
Apparently nitrogen in fertiliser and nitrogen from the air are different, but we need to know for sure first
a. Liquid air is different from liquid nitrogen, which is already widely used
b. Is any nitrogen produced from it?
7. Are there environmental side effects produced from this?
a. Hydrocarbons?
8. How safe is it?
9. How did this plant go over the last 2 years:
b. 26 Nov 2020 — Liquid air energy storage (LAES) is in the news again, as one of the first large-scale commercial plants in the UK has recently been ...
There are few companies in this- if it is safe, can it rapidly expand so higher supply means lower prices
What about this as a solution for solar panels on roofs? https://www.chalmers.se/en/departments/chem/news/Pages/Converting-solar-energy-to-electricity-on-demand.aspx
“The generator is an ultra-thin chip that could be integrated into electronics such as headphones, smart watches and telephones. So far, we have only generated small amounts of electricity.
The research has great potential for renewable and emissions-free energy production.
But a lot of research and development remains before we will be able to charge our technical gadgets or heat our homes with the system's stored solar energy."
Resources for more answers
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/ worlds-biggest-liquid-air-battery-starts-construction-in-uk
https://www.generon.com/how-is-nitrogen-produced-for-industrial-applications/
a. Liquid Air Energy Storage: Is It The Future? - Trends - https://www.rowse.co.uk
https://news.mongabay.com/2021/09/nitrogen-the-environmental-crisis-you-havent-heard-of-yet/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25033340-800-the-nitrogen-emergency-how-to-fix-our-forgotten-environmental-crisis/
